Long-Term Holders

Bitcoin

2026-10-01 07:44:14

Analyst says BTC remains above short-term holder cost basis as long-term holders sit on 72% unrealized gains

Bitcoin is trading at about $83,700, or 14% above the short-term holder (STH) cost basis, according to crypto analyst Axel Adler. Over the past week, the STH cost basis rose 1.2% from $72,800 on Sept. 24 to $73,700. Even with that increase, short-term holders are still sitting on roughly 13.7% in unrealized profit, down from 15.4% a week earlier. On the long-term holder (LTH) side, the cost basis slipped from $48,900 to $48,800 over the same period, a decline of about 0.3% and one of the faster weekly drops seen this year. At current levels, BTC is trading about 72% above the LTH cost basis, leaving that cohort with a sizable unrealized profit cushion. Adler said changes in the LTH cost basis are mainly driven by shifts in holding duration. He added that some higher-cost coins may move into the short-term holder group after being transferred, which can lift the STH cost basis. If the weekly change in the LTH cost basis returns to zero, that could signal the metric is stabilizing.

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Bitcoin

2026-10-01 07:44:48

Axel Adler says Bitcoin trades 14% above short-term holder cost basis

Crypto analyst Axel Adler said Bitcoin is trading at about $83,700, or 14% above the cost basis of short-term holders, according to a post cited by ChainCatcher. The data showed that the short-term holder cost basis rose 1.2% over the past week, climbing from $72,800 on Sept. 24 to $73,700. Even as that cost basis moved higher, unrealized profit for short-term holders slipped to about 13.7% from 15.4% a week earlier. On the long-term holder side, the cost basis edged down from $48,900 to $48,800 over the same period, a decline of roughly 0.3% and one of the faster weekly drops seen this year. At current levels, Bitcoin is trading about 72% above the long-term holder cost basis, leaving that cohort with a sizable unrealized profit cushion. Adler said changes in the long-term holder cost basis are mainly driven by shifts in holding duration, with some higher-cost coins potentially moving into the short-term holder group after being transferred. He added that if the weekly change in the long-term holder cost basis returns to zero, the indicator may be stabilizing.

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Bitcoin

2026-09-29 16:26:11

Bitcoin Pulls Back Below $85K as Long-Term Holder Supply Adds Resistance

Bitcoin gave up its latest advance after the Tuesday Wall Street open, failing to sustain a move toward $85,000 as rising US Treasury yields kept pressure on risk assets and precious metals. BTC/USD briefly climbed to the mid-$84,000 range before slipping back below its daily open near $83,600 and later dropping under $83,000. In the bond market, the 30-year US yield rose above 5.60% to a new 24-year high, while the 10-year yield reached 5.26%, close to overtaking its June 2007 peak and levels last seen in April 2002. Gold, which had fallen 3.6% on Monday to $4,115 per ounce, recovered to $4,166 at the time of writing. Order-book data from CoinGlass showed ask liquidity continuing to build around $85,000, reinforcing overhead resistance. Glassnode said long-term holder supply was most concentrated in the $84,000-$85,000 range, raising the odds of profit-taking if Bitcoin attempts a breakout. Mosaic Asset Company, meanwhile, argued that US equities could still rebound from what it called extremely oversold conditions, citing weak market breadth, a rise in bearish sentiment and stronger-than-expected August job gains even as markets price in a 0.25% Federal Reserve rate hike in October.

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CryptoQuant

2026-09-29 08:23:02

CryptoQuant says adjusted LTH MVRV has recovered to 1.35, putting long-term Bitcoin holders back in profit

CryptoQuant analyst Zizcrypto said the adjusted long-term holder, or LTH, MVRV metric has recovered from a shallow stress zone and moved back into profit. The data covers holders with coin ages ranging from six months to 10 years. In April, the adjusted MVRV for this cohort remained above 1 even as it compressed, with 1 marking the aggregate break-even level. Readings above 1 indicate unrealized profit, while readings below 1 point to unrealized losses. From June through August, the metric fell below 1 on five occasions. It hit a 2026 low of about 0.94 on June 30, when BTC traded near $58,500 and the cohort’s realized price basis stood around $62,000, leaving the market price roughly 6% below break-even. Zizcrypto said the drawdown was limited in both duration and depth, and that the indicator stayed close to 1 rather than entering the deep loss phases seen in 2019 and 2022-2023. As of Sept. 27, the adjusted LTH MVRV had rebounded to about 1.35. BTC was trading near $84,500, while the realized price for long-term holders was about $62,700, putting spot roughly 35% above that cost basis. According to the analyst, the cohort has moved out of a shallow sub-1 stress period and back into overall profitability.

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Long.xyz

2026-09-27 01:32:09

Long.xyz founder says the platform aims to curb short-term PVP and build for long-term holders

Long.xyz founder Nate said in a post on X that the project is not being built around a single meme, AI narrative, or other market theme. Instead, he said the goal is to keep iterating and reduce the risk that any one factor could cause an asset to fail. Nate argued that one of crypto’s core problems today is the lack of trust and the lack of an expectation that assets can be held over the long run. In his view, many assets can go to zero quickly even though a meaningful share of users want assets they can keep for longer periods, while the market lacks platforms that can consistently offer that kind of exposure. He said Long.xyz is trying to balance several elements at once: deeper liquidity, room for outsized returns, meme characteristics without being purely meme-driven, and project teams that can help push development without becoming the only source of support. Nate also said Long.xyz plans to connect assets with areas including real-world assets, U.S. stock catalysts, and AI, while trying to reduce the impact that sharp drops in major crypto assets can have on the ecosystem without fully detaching from crypto market cycles.

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Bitcoin

2026-09-26 09:55:54

Analyst says BTC long-term holder exchange inflows are cooling as market behavior turns more rational

Crypto analyst Darkfost said on X that Bitcoin exchange inflows from long-term holders, or LTHs, show a clear shift in behavior across recent market cycles. During the March 2024 market top, LTHs were at their most active in the bull run, with average daily BTC inflows to exchanges at one point rising to more than five times the annual average. By contrast, activity around the 2025 top was relatively muted. Darkfost said LTH activity picked up only after the bear market began. As that happened, the annual average of daily BTC exchange inflows climbed from about 600 BTC to about 1,000 BTC. He added that, as the market moved closer to a bear-market bottom, inflows on some trading days ran far above the yearly average, matching a rise in realized losses among buyers who had entered at higher levels. According to Darkfost, that activity is now cooling again. He said exchange inflows tied to long-term holders remain well below the annual average, indicating a change in behavior and a market that is becoming more rational.

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Bitcoin

2026-09-26 01:53:52

River says 81% of circulating Bitcoin has not moved for over six months

Data from Bitcoin financial services firm River shows that 81% of the Bitcoin currently in circulation has not moved for more than six months. The figure points to a stronger reluctance among holders to sell, with the market commonly reading this type of on-chain pattern as a firm long-term holding, or HODL, signal. The update was cited by ChainCatcher in a short market analysis item and centers on holder behavior rather than short-term price action. At its core, the data suggests a large share of circulating BTC remains inactive over an extended period, underscoring the persistence of long-duration holding among existing owners.

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Bitcoin

2026-09-25 13:18:01

Mitchell Askew says 15 million inactive BTC may point to fading sell pressure

Bitcoin Magazine featured a discussion with Mitchell Askew, head of Blockware Intelligence, on why Bitcoin has continued to rally even after a Federal Reserve rate hike and the failure of the Clarity Act. Askew said on-chain data suggests sellers may be close to exhaustion, pointing in particular to long-term holder supply, which reached an all-time high of 15 million BTC this summer. In his view, a growing share of coins staying inactive can indicate that fewer holders are willing to sell into the market, leaving room for the price to keep moving higher. The program also linked Bitcoin ETF flows to signs that institutional buyers are returning. Beyond market structure, the episode covered a wider set of themes, including whether the four-year halving cycle is breaking down, how AI data centers are pulling compute away from Bitcoin mining, the current hash rate bear market, stranded energy and global mining arbitrage, and whether Gen Z may eventually save in Bitcoin. The post was written by Patrick Green and first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine.

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